TY - JOUR AU - Neher, Richard A. AU - Dyrdak, Robert AU - Druelle, Valentin AU - Hodcroft, Emma B. AU - Albert, Jan PY - 2020/03/16 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic JF - Swiss Medical Weekly JA - Swiss Med Wkly VL - 150 IS - 1112 SE - Original article DO - 10.4414/smw.2020.20224 UR - https://smw.ch/index.php/smw/article/view/2745 SP - w20224 AB - <p><p>A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020.</p> <p>Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions.</p> <p>While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.</p></p> ER -